T2 Luck and Predictions

Welcome to Tier Two Time!  Kckolbe here again, and time to do some of the predictions for T2 drivers.  This won’t take as long, since there are only 28 drivers in this tier, all of whom are able to participate in every race.  Between both of those things, there’s a lot less disparity between attribute rank and standings.  Still, we are gonna do some luck rankings.

 

Driver Difference
Tilly Tamburlaine 7
Kurt Gunnabee 7
Mike Molholt 7
Tigole Bitties 4
Rusty Wallace 4
Niki Lauda, Jr 4
Wes Winston 3
Kevin Keselowski 2
Danny Vandoorne 2
Julia O’Sullivan 2
Chester Curd 2
Alex Light 1
Duff Wallace 1
Luis Cabrera Perez 0
Borsepher NaNa 0
Alexis Rodrigo 0
Dayymo Wert -2
Pushkin -2
Rory Walker -2
Chris Crutchfield -2
Charlotte Bowey -3
Cody Ghostspeed -3
Crash Bandicoot -3
Joe Trickle -5
Jack Stevens -6
Robert Phelps -6
Dave Lake -6
Derek Zoolander -6

 

Tilly Tamburlaine may be having a lucky year, but I doubt she feels that way at the moment, as she was in first place this morning.  Conversely, Jack Stevens is currently tied as the unluckiest driver at 6 spots below, but moved up 4 spots today, so he had to get a lucky finish just to be among the unluckiest.

 

As with last week, here are my projections on the final standings.

Driver Standings Att Rank New Rank
Kevin Keselowski 1 3 1.875
Charlotte Bowey 5 2 3.6875
Jack Stevens 7 1 4.375
Danny Vandoorne 4 6 4.875
Tilly Tamburlaine 2 9 5.0625
Kurt Gunnabee 3 10 6.0625
Alex Light 6 7 6.4375
Robert Phelps 10 4 7.375
Luis Cabrera Perez 8 8 8
Dave Lake 11 5 8.375
Tigole Bitties 9 13 10.75
Cody Ghostspeed 14 11 12.6875
Wes Winston 13 16 14.3125
Joe Trickle 17 12 14.8125
Borsepher NaNa 15 15 15
Mike Molholt 12 19 15.0625
Dayymo Wert 16 14 15.125
Julia O’Sullivan 18 20 18.875
Crash Bandicoot 21 18 19.6875
Chester Curd 19 21 19.875
Derek Zoolander 23 17 20.375
Rusty Wallace 20 24 21.75
Pushkin 24 22 23.125
Niki Lauda, Jr 22 26 23.75
Rory Walker 25 23 24.125
Chris Crutchfield 27 25 26.125
Duff Wallace 26 27 26.4375
Alexis Rodrigo 28 28 28

 

My own driver, Kevin Keselowski, seems to have replaced Danny Vandoorne as the inconsistent champion.  Keselowski has now won an unprecedented 5 of the 9 races so far, but only has 6 top 10 finishes.  Charlotte Bowey, who lived up to her nickname of Bowdozer today, has improved considerably from the 28th place she found herself in last year to 5th so far this time, so even though winning it all is a somewhat tall order, she will be the most improved from last year to this one.

 

Finally, Alex Rodrigo, for the first time this season, is actually at the bottom of the standings.  He entered today’s race 27th, but got taken out in an early wreck.

28 Comments

  1. I’m disgusted….
    This is a travesty …an injustice…a complete and total misrepresentation of the facts.
    My car is TOO DAMN PRETTY to be this mediocre ..DT did such a good job, my car could be an ARCA regular ..where’s that free sponsor beer I’m gonna cry in it.
    Gawd dang facts always screwing up my fantasy.

    • There’s a lot in play. For one, the smaller # of drivers means everyone qualifies, so no one misses races. That’s one huge variable gone. In addition, the difference in ability between the top and bottom is much bigger. Bowey and Stevens have raised their attributes over 300 points, so have over 200 points on some of the lesser drivers (and 300 over Rodrigo), plus lower gap. Even at their worst day, they are better than those guys on average. In T1, Bigsby and Spencer were around 160 or so attribute upgrades last I checked, less than 100 above the worst drivers.

  2. I’d be curious to know what you’re considering “luck?” I’m wondering if simply increasing stats and reducing relative gap is finally producing a more stable field overall, benefiting drivers who’ve selected to focus on attributes that provide for the most lap-after-lap consistency. Will be interesting to see how Tier 2 develops in it’s second season.

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